Geomagnetic storm forecast - 3^rd October 2024

What Has Happened?

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) left the Sun at approximately 22:36 UT on 1^st Oct 2024. It was associated with an X7.1-class solar flare originating from a centrally located active region on the Sun. This CME is expected to arrive late on 4^th or early 5^th Oct and is likely to lead to a significant enhancement in geomagnetic activity.

At around mid-day on the 3^rd Oct an X9-class solar flare was observed leaving the same active region. This is the largest solar flare of this solar cycle so far, and it appears to have an associated full-halo CME. There were also several other M-class flares with associated CMEs during 2^nd Oct which may add to the activity.

The combination of all the CMEs is likely to lead to a significant increase in geomagnetic activity over the next few days, with prolonged STORM periods probable.

Assuming clear dark skies, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora during the evenings of the 4^th-6^th Oct. Those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland have the best chance if the weather is favourable.

 

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Glossary

BGS

The British Geological Survey is a geoscience research centre that is part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and affiliated to the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).

CME or Coronal Mass Ejection

The eruption of a portion of the outer atmosphere of the Sun into space, caused by rapid changes in its magnetic field. Often occurs along with a solar flare.

Solar Flare

Energy released by the explosive reorganisation of magnetic fields within the Sun's atmosphere.

Sunspot/Active Region

A region of intense magnetic field in the Sun's visible outer atmosphere often associated with flares and CMEs.