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BGS Global Geomagnetic Activity Forecast

Forecast period
(noon-to-noon GMT) 		Forecast Global Activity level
Average Max
21 AUG-22 AUG QUIET ACTIVE
22 AUG-23 AUG QUIET QUIET
23 AUG-24 AUG QUIET QUIET

For more information about the forecast and activity categories see
geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/activitylevels.html

Activity during last 24 hours

Global   Local (UK)
Date Average Max At time (UTC) Average Max At time (UTC)
20 AUG-21 AUG QUIET ACTIVE 18:00-21:00 QUIET ACTIVE 18:00-21:00

Additional Comments

The solar wind speed is still elevated at ~500 km/s due to residual coronal hole (CH) effects. Activity is expected to decline during the first forecast interval and there is a chance of further ACTIVE spells whilst solar wind parameters remain enhanced. The coronal mass ejection (CME) from 16-Aug appears to have missed Earth.
Throughout the rest of the forecast, activity will slowly return to background levels and overall QUIET conditions are anticipated.
Solar activity has been increasing due to an active region on the east limb, so far producing three moderate M-class X-ray flares over the past two days. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed from these events.
Time of forecast: 21 Aug 2026
© UKRI